Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Mr. Bubble


I'm not a financial advisor. I have no inside information. I've ridden the stock market up, like most people through mostly broad-based mutual funds.  The Crash of '87, the Tech Bubble of the early 2000's, the Flash Crash, and the Meltdown of '08 were just bumps in the road. Today, here we are, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a new high, breaking the 20000 point mark today. With a long-term time horizon, stocks have been and are the place to be.

But now, there's something new, and never seen before in our lifetimes. With the ascension of Trump, and his avowed program of lunatic trade policies and his shoot-from-the-hip and insane foreign policy pronouncements, it looks to me like there are new market risks that could wind up leading to serious financial upheaval.

Everybody's situation is different, and everyone is at a different point in their financial journey. We are at a new Dow high, and we are facing an unpredictable and erratic Leader of the Free World just itching to make his narcissistic and inept mark on the world.

Whether it's a trade war with China, a disruption in trade partnerships with our allies, or threats of nuclear proliferation in the hottest of hotspots in the world, along with economic uncertainty and disintegration in Europe, there are a lot of moving parts and a heck of a lot that can go wrong.

There are no financial professionals that I am aware of that have espoused what I am recommending. I could very well be off-base, completely and totally wrong, about to miss a historic market upswing. I will point out, however, that it is rare that market bubbles are successfully forecast. It's what makes those bursting bubbles so painful.

I believe that a serious defensive financial positioning is called for, at least going through the mid-term elections. The fool Trump is not the guy you'd want to drive your financial bus, particularly since we have seen how he has taken to his first week in office. He is just as much a liar, inept and unfit for the job that he was before his election.

I've moved to cash for now. I'm quite ready to foreswear any temporary market upswing going forward, the global risks seemingly being ignored by the masses, another bad and bubbly sign.

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